The fallacy goes something like this... Select certain horses ...Implement a few simple rules, no thought required ...Place your bets ...Watch the cash flow into your Betfair account ...How easy is that? If This Is Your Idea Of A Profitable Betting System, I'm Afraid You Are Going To Be Very Disappointed With Most After A Few Weeks
In fact you will find it very difficult to make any consistent profits by simply implementing a few static rules on a daily basis.
Little known >FACT 1: Most
so called miracle systems fail because the core rules are all wrong to start with. They are back-fitted
(The rules are made to fit the results) making those results look outstanding.
Little known >FACT 2: Static rules often fail because
they are not flexible enough to take into consideration the changes that take place on a daily basis in racing such, as Going, Withdrawals, Jockeys and so on.
Little known >FACT 3: Trends exist in horseracing and can be important, of that there can be no doubt.
But trends are frequently worthless for a number of reasons, notably when they seek to replace specific knowledge of individual horses with generalities that are far less relevant, and when they are compiled in a crude and simplistic manner, which is the approach far too may systems take..
From: The desk of
Betfair Accredited Trainer Jonathan Burgess RE: What you really need to make consistent profit from laying horses
Dear fellow racing enthusiast You almost certainly found your way to this web site because you're interested in getting your hands a profitable method to earn some extra income. The
Race Specialist won't be the first or, the last betting system that you take a look at and...
"You may be wondering why what I'm about to tell you is any different from what you have already read dozens of times before? Read on, you`ll notice a distinct lack of "Greatest Most Profitable System Ever tone" Every one is sick and tired of reading that kind of garbadge" Anyone searching for a method to create a first or second income from betting will tell you from experience, there are
literally hundreds of betting systems and associated products available online today...
The number one question on everyone's lips is? Do any of them actually Work?
The answer unfortunately
isn't simple and, to confuse matters even more the nauseating
abundance of hype surrounding most systems/methods means that newcomers and more experienced bettors alike are faced with... Some
pretty tough decisions Time and again the eventual decision to buy is influenced by... Promises of instant wealth in return for very little effort
Far too many punters are searching for the
holy grail of betting systems that will allow them to make a ton of cash almost instantly. The ultimate retirement plan which will allow its users to finish work within a few months, simply by
following a few static rules that take around
10 minutes day to implement. As you've probably guessed by now such a system...
Does not, and will not ever exist. If it sounds too good to be true it is, no ifs, no buts it's (BS)
You've suspected for a long time that most of the (self proclaimed betting gurus) are trying to pull the wool over your eyes - and
you're right. They're worried that you're going to come to this realization, because they know when you do all trust is gone and the chances of you buying anything from them ever again is very slim.
Having said that,
most don`t even care, because they know that there are plenty more unsuspecting punters queuing up to buy their garbage. These people make a living...
This
very sad and unethical approach to creating betting products only confuses people, and ultimately...
- Damages confidence
- Crush's initial enthusiasm
- Loses money in the long run
Ultimately leaving most punters
feeling ripped off and disillusioned with online betting in general.
The average punter on the street is
only as good as the information they use, and sadly like most of you I have had to learn the hard way through
trail and error.
Unfortunately very few people can be bothered to learn what is really needed to profit long-term from betting on horses. They are
constantly in search of fools gold, which they find without much effort at all. In fact there is so much of it about that it has become very difficult
to see the wood for the trees.
It is a little known fact that a very large percentage of system creators are no more than dubious marketers, making tons of cash...from the sales of poorly developed, obvious mechanical style systems, which
don't deliver the profits on a long term basis.
Their actual racing knowledge is pretty poor if I'm honest. Most of it can be obtained for free on the internet through forums and such like. Ask your self, why are there are so many over hyped junk systems on the market that don't deliver?
These Marketers
( Who Are Not Racing Experts ) are
giving the market what it desires. In simple terms, if a lot of punters are in search of a miracle system which will generate a ton of cash for very little effort...
Then these card sharks are simply exploiting the supply and demand principle of people's greed! The majority of these systems are created using software to research
past results. The core rules are then set around certain parameters, based on the software's findings.
This approach will only produce
moderate profits for few a weeks at the very most.
Static rules generally only work for a short period because, the circumstances which make a systems rules profitable change on a weekly basis...
In simple terms the rules have been created to fit the results, i.e. Back fitted. The best way to use most systems is, to help you become more skilled at picking winners or losers.
That doesn't necessarily mean you should bet on every selection identified. A real professional method
grades bets to minimize risk, this is something a lot of systems simply don't do. Keeping detailed records of your results and the type of bets you make will help you to monitor whether a system/method is profitable or not.
Unfortunately there is
no one size fits all type of betting. Each aspect of racing should be judged, and measured on its own merits at that particular time of assessment.
All good racing systems/methods should be in tune with
true racing logic. You can never really completely rely on a system to pick selections without assessing any form at all...
Any one who tells you any different is applying the scattergun approach to betting... Which eventually leads to playing catch up,
chasing loses most weeks, usually at uncomfortably large odds. Most punters are not emotionally prepared to handle those loses, and I speak form experience as I been their myself.
The number one thing I hated about high liability laying systems, was the effect even the most modest losing run had on me and my betting bank. Don't forget the odds on Betfair are generally around
15-20% bigger than the bookies, especially on outsiders.
All major credit/debit cards and PayPal accepted. After payment is complete you can immediately download the Race specialist manual which is in exe/PDF format. You will need Adobe Acrobat on your PC/MAC
Laying bigger prices on Betfair will seriously dent your betting bank in the end – Guaranteed!
Mechanical style systems with rigid rules unfortunately have many failings, after all racing is all about horses, and we all know
how unpredictable they can be. "There are so many different variables within racing that can affect a set of static rules" If you
blindly bet on every horse a system throws up, without checking any form or racing statistics, then you are going against true racing logic and flying in the face of statistical fact. Its the non flexible nature of these rules which ultimately leads to failure
"Therefore generating consistent profits will probably seem ever elusive" It's pretty widely known that 95% of all punters make a loss. Most punters do their money because they think that betting on horses is simply a case of finding a profitable system and
following it to the letter.
"Yes you need structure and rules to follow and some systems give you this" But... Why are so many punters afraid of using a little judgment?
You have to ask yourself did you get this far in life without using any judgment at all, definitely not. So why when it comes to choosing a horse to bet on do punters want to follow
paint by numbers style formula? Never deviating or ask any questions about why they are doing so?
Yet in every other aspect of life they would
naturally question why they should be doing something, and in doing so
what are the potential consequences. "It basically boils down to a combination of time management, pure laziness and unwillingness to learn something new" "Bookies have built massive empires exploiting these mentalities" Most punters simply want to plug in and play. Sorry to burst the bubble here but betting on racing with real money is not a game,
it's a skill, but like any other can be taught. Thinking
outside the box will give you a
far greater advantage in the long run, you just have to trust me on this. Doing the opposite to the crowd is where the clever layers make their living.
What happens to a horses odds when popular tipsters in the racing press make it their best bet of the day? They shorten to point where there is no value at all to be had. This happens because the masses jump over each other to get a bet on, thus rapidly reducing the odds.
It's the same with laying systems that choose exactly the same selections for every user. There are literally tons about which advise users to choose
exactly the same selections, this really is -
herd mentality. Everybody laying the same horse, has an equal but opposite effect to everyone backing the same horse...
But the odds do the complete opposite. Think about it for a minute, hundreds of system users all laying exactly the same selection. What happens to the odds on that horse?
It drifts very badly, and the value is completely destroyed on that horse or any like it in the long term Most lay system creators know this, and they will in fact be laying these selections way ahead of the majority of users. Eventually trading a profit, once a horse has drifted enough to secure a decent no lose position.
Horses you are advised to lay at
5/1 end up being 6/1. Those advised at
6/1 end up being 8/1 and above; two or three consecutive losing runs down the line and your confidence is in bits, and your betting bank has taken a serious battering.
Even the most moderate losing runs can drastically affect your judgment. Operating a high liability lay system is like
riding an emotional roller coaster - Long deceptive winning runs are wiped out in an instance by just a couple of winners at the wrong odds, eventually...
You start to think...
- What if the next one wins
- Is worth carrying on
- Do I really want to put myself through this again
All your previous hard earned profits are gone, and you have to start from scratch. Unfortunately you
will experienced all this, using high liability lay systems.
Any successful layer will tell you, their number one advantage over the masses lies in doing the complete opposite to them
The problem is with so many hyped up systems and methods on the internet it can be a
difficult to see the wood for the trees. I'll be the first to admit, it is pretty difficult to sort out the genuine contenders from the junk.
Lay systems that take only minutes to implement often
claim to perform miracles, mostly advising high liability lays that leave you only one or two bets from bankruptcy,
Very few offer any advise on the most important aspects of punting such as...
- Actually learning about the sport you are betting on
- Emotional balance,
- Realistic staking plans, proper money management,
- Exit strategies, planning your betting campaign.
- Discipline
In fact,
most don't even come remotely close to preparing the average punter for betting. You've probably heard the term
"value" being thrown around in racing. Value is probably the most overlooked but single most important concept to adhere to when betting.
If you don't obtain value on your bets, you will struggle to turn a profit, backing or laying. If you don't check anything else about a horse, other than its 3rd in a handicap or, other such nonsense you will lose money long term.
Using such methods in reality means you are employing the
scattergun approach, which eventually leads to playing catch up, chasing loses most weeks at very big odds often at 6.00 and above. Don't forget Betfair odds are generally bigger than the bookies.
Laying bigger prices on the exchanges will seriously dent your betting bank in the end – guaranteed… It is
totally demoralizing to get six winning lays in row, only to be wiped out by the seventh at 8/1. Since non of us have any realistic control over the way the sequence of winners or losers fall. Laying at big odds or, using other over publicized methods of betting such as,
progressive staking plans should be avoided at all cost, regardless of what any other self proclaimed racing gurus are telling you.
The most important factor as to whether you're betting is profitable or not long term is, price "Price is King"
If you are always laying or backing horses at the wrong odds
(laying higher and backing lower) you will lose – As an analogy, its like buying stocks and shares. Would you buy shares in company for £2 and then try and sell those shares for £1.50? -
If you did that on a regular basis you will go broke. Unfortunately most punters find it very difficult to change their undisciplined betting habits, even when they get their hands on a decent system/betting method. Let me give you a really profitable method, completely FREE RIGHT NOW!
Get a FREE copy of..."The National Hunt Primer"
(Worth £29.99)
This ebook Explains everything you'll need to know about Jumps Racing. *Knowledge is Power* Pro Gamblers use this kind of information, to cash in on the right betting opportunities within Jumps racing
YOU will also get instant access to "The same secrets Pro-Punters keep closely guarded " in "THE TRUTH ABOUT LAY BETTING- 7 Part e-course, which is full of tips and pro advice on how to make your betting pay long term. RRP (£100)
Unlike others we won`t bombard you with emails promoting the latest JUNK systems.
What You Will Learn
- Entire N/H code explained Each race type explained, from Hurdles to Chases. Contrary to popular belief they aren't all the same.
- Complete N/H course guide. Not all courses are the same, some are far easier to negotiate than others. Learn how to profit from profiling a horses course preferences.
- N/H long term statistics analysed To help you make informed decisions about which races to lay in and which to back in.
We can GUARANTEE Unlike the usual FREE e books that teach you nothing except obvious stuff you already know about Betfair or betting -This one is very imformative
To down load your copy of this invaluable FREE guide NOW and get access to your FREE 7 part e-course a.s.a.p...simply type in your primary email address and click the "Get More Info! button ". You could be profiting with our easy to use pro betting methods in just a few hours.
After all you have nothing to lose and plenty to gain, since BOTH these fantastic resources are totally FREE! |
Now YOU know what to avoid
Let me introduce you too a something that is working (RIGHT NOW) and will continue to do so for many years to come
A very comprehensive set of methods that are based around the core principles of Horse Racing, incorporating the dynamics of successful long term punting. Combined with very effective strategies to implement on betfair.
These methods are the core principles of the...
All major credit/debit cards and PayPal accepted. After payment is complete you can immediately download the Race specialist manual which is in exe/PDF format. You will need Adobe Acrobat on your PC/MAC
Let me explain what makes the
Race Specialist different from many of the other laying systems available online.
Its unique in the sense that it teaches proven methods used by myself and other shrewd punters, and best of all it won't break the bank if you hit the odd loser here and there.
In fact you will never ever lose more than 2.5 x your stake on any single lay bet Continue...
Orignal From:
Race Specialist
Posts
